WHAT DO THE ELECTION RESULTS MEAN FOR DOE & NUCLEAR?
With the election of President Donald J. Trump as the 47th President of the United States, changes are likely to occur regarding the issue areas most important to ECA members. Based on his previous tenure as President, statements made during his campaign, and with the Senate flipping to a Republican majority with many House races still ongoing, ECA is already seeing many shifts underway.
ECA expects shifts in:
Leadership Changes
Policy Changes
EM Funding
High-Level Waste Interpretation
HLW and SNF Storage and Disposal
Committee Changes
Budget & Appropriations
Leadership Changes
Management of DOE always changes under a new Administration. We should expect a reorganization of DOE and likely each of the major offices. The incoming Administration will appoint a new Secretary of Energy to replace the current Secretary, Jennifer Granholm. ECA expects that a nominee will be named in early December. According to Politico, potential candidates for Secretary include:
Dan Brouillette – Former Secretary of DOE and ECA members have worked closely with him in the past..
Doug Burgum – Governor of North Dakota
Paul Dabbar – Former DOE Under Secretary for Science; responsible for oversight of EM during his tenure. ECA members also worked closely with him. Dabbar is currently the Chief Executive Officer of Bohr Quantum Technology,
Mark Menezes – President & CEO of the U.S. Energy Association, Former Deputy Secretary of Energy. Several ECA members also worked with him.
Potential nominees for Deputy Secretary, Undersecretaries and Assistant Secretaries to lead specific program offices, such as Nuclear Energy and Science, won’t be known for some time. For the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), while the Administrator has, in the past, stayed on as administrations change, we expect that the current Administrator and NNSA political leadership team will not continue under the new administration.
ECA has been asked whether the new administration will continue to have a DOE career employee lead the Office of Environmental Management or return to a political appointee. We believe there will be individuals interested in the EM-1 position, and we understand that the transition team may want a political EM-1. We should know the direction the new administration decides to take by the summer of 2025. The current EM-1, Senior Advisor Candice Robertson, is strongly supported by ECA members in her current role.
Policy Changes
The incoming administration will look for ways to accelerate nuclear development and licensing – most likely through statutory changes and appropriations. However, ECA expects the administration will consider all avenues to facilitate the commercialization of small modular reactors (SMRs), nuclear fuel manufacturing, and regulatory reform impacting the Office of Nuclear Energy (NE) and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). While we have seen support from Congress and the Biden Administration for increasing domestic production of High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium (HALEU), should there be a cease-fire or a path forward towards peace in Ukraine, we could see the Trump Administration resume purchasing nuclear fuel from Russia.
EM Funding
As priorities change with the new Administration - for example, environmental justice implementation is likely to slow – we expect to see impacts on DOE’s budget. ECA projects that the EM program will continue to have bi-partisan support for the mission, but the big question is whether current funding levels will be maintained. In the past, Congress has supported EM regardless of which party is in control of the House and Senate. If the federal budget does take a hit, it is important to note that funding for EM is part of the defense budget and competes with the nuclear weapons (NNSA) side of the house. Over the past several years, both programs have seen steady increases, but it is something to watch for if leadership proposes budget cuts or a flat budget.
ECA expects NNSA, which historically also has had strong bipartisan support, to see continued growth for its budget. How NNSA leadership spends - or does not spend - its budget will be key. If there are budget stresses, it remains to be seen whether the priority will be funding for NNSA or EM.
High-Level Waste Interpretation
ECA will recommend to the incoming administration, as it has in our recently released Transition Paper, that new leadership revisit using the High-Level Waste Interpretation, which could save billions of dollars for the cleanup program by basing waste disposal decisions on radiological characteristics of waste rather than origin. The HLW interpretation was supported by the previous Trump Administration.
HLW and SNF Storage and Disposal
The fate of the nuclear waste disposal program and DOE’s consent-based siting initiative for a consolidated federal interim storage facility will be important to watch in 2025. When the first Trump Administration came in, the consent-based siting effort launched by the Obama Administration was terminated. ECA supports the current effort, but it is uncertain whether it will be continued. Regardless, a deep geological repository is still needed and the Nuclear Waste Policy Act, designating Yucca Mountain, remains the law of the land. ECA and other interested parties have advocated for the creation of a new DOE office focused solely on nuclear waste storage and disposition to be established but it also uncertain whether the new Administration will be supportive.
Committee Changes
With Republicans now in control of the Senate, the leadership and composition of the Senate Armed Services Committee and Senate Subcommittee on Energy and Water Development Appropriations will change. The members of these committees are key to determining what funding is authorized and provided for DOE programs and communities.
ECA expects the following shifts: for Senate Energy and Water Development Appropriations Subcommittee, Senator John Kennedy (R-LA) will likely become Chair and Senator Patty Murry (D-WA) will become the ranking member. In the Senate Armed Services committee, Senator Roger Wicker (R-MS) is likely to become the Chair and Senator Jack Reed (D-RI) is likely to become the ranking member.
While many of the House races are yet to be determined, Chair of the House Energy & Commerce committee, Cathy McMorris Rodgers (WA-05), has retired, meaning there will be a new chair to replace her.
Budget & Appropriations
It is important to remember that DOE funding is operating under a continuing resolution (CR). Neither chamber has passed their version of the Energy and Water Appropriations Bill, and several other appropriations have also stalled. However, Congress must meet the deadline of December 20 to pass an omnibus appropriations bill or another continuing resolution (CR), when the current CR extending FY2024 appropriations expires.
With Republicans in firm control of the Senate, the fate of the bill is dependent upon elections that will determine who takes control of the House of Representatives, where some races may not be called for weeks. If the House retains a Republican majority, we can expect a new CR to carry through FY2024 until April; if the House flips to a Democratic majority, a full year appropriation bill is more likely.
It is also important to note that Congress has yet to pass the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year (FY) 2025, although the House passed its own version of the bill (H.R.8070) earlier this year. Its Senate counterpart (S.4638) was approved by the Senate Armed Services Committee in September. ECA expects it will pass in the next six (6) weeks.
To see details on the Senate and House Energy and Water Development Appropriations Bills, visit ECA's Budget Tracker on our website.
ECA will continue to update you on changes and issues that are important to you. Please reach out with any questions or areas that you would like us to focus on for future summaries. For more information, visit our website.
Also, to see ECA’s recommendations on the transition for EM, please see Ensuring Long-Term Success: Recommendations for the Next Administration on the U.S. Department of Energy’s Environmental Management Mission.